Rebuilding global oil stocks could take two years, Aramco chief warns

Rebuilding global oil stockpiles depleted during the Middle East conflict could take up to two years, even after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser warned on Monday.

Speaking at the Energy Intelligence conference in London, Nasser said supplies of crude oil and refined fuels remain stretched. His estimate reflects the challenge of replenishing inventories while continuing to meet everyday demand.

Emergency stock releases have helped cushion the disruption. But Nasser said those withdrawals offer temporary relief rather than resolve the imbalance between supply and demand. He described the world’s remaining supply buffer as “scarily thin.”

The distinction matters because restoring shipments would not immediately restore the reserves used during the conflict. Oil-consuming countries would need additional supplies beyond normal consumption to rebuild those buffers, leaving a potentially lengthy recovery.

Lower inventories also reduce the market’s ability to absorb fresh disruptions. Further interruptions to production, refining or shipping could therefore have a greater impact while stocks remain depleted.

Nasser’s two-year estimate is a warning about inventory recovery, rather than a forecast that oil prices will remain at a particular level. The rebuilding timeline will depend on export flows, available production and demand once disrupted shipping routes recover.

Market Insight:  
Depleted inventories could keep oil sensitive to supply disruptions. Watch Hormuz shipping flows and stock rebuilding for signs that market buffers are recovering.